Last Year's Big Winners Being Overvalued
Odds makers, in general need to set a line that will bring in even money on both sides of a game. Therefore, they must be satisfied that the public will be split in opinion on a line, this includes those people that wager but do not follow football religiously. Because of this, often times, a good team from the previous year (e.g. The super bowl Champions) is overvalued and given an inflated line.
Although this is usually the case, this year may be different. Despite the fact that New England was 13-5-1 ATS last season there is still plenty of public opinion that last season was an aberration. This sense of public disbelief in their ability to win may sway me away from even looking at this theory. The early verdict is that they will not be overvalued but a big win in week 1 against Pittsburgh may change that quickly.
Last year the Ravens went 2-1 ATS in September games and finished 9-8 ATS overall while St. Louis went 1-2-1 ATS in September and a miserable 6-10-1 ATS overall following their Superbowl win. Denver opened up 0-4 ATS in 1999. My fear is that NE and their style of play is not really attractive to the public, yet their story is telling a few may be willing to jump on the bandwagon which could lead to some value.
It should also be noted that the Superbowl loser has been below or at .500 after their appearance in the big game the past few years. Last season the Giants finished 6-9-1 ATS. In 2000 the Titans finished 7-10 ATS, in 1999 Atlanta finished 6-10 ATS, 1998 saw Green Bay finish 8-8-1 ATS, and New England in 1997 went 9-9. St. Louis is a big public team and is coming off a super bowl appearance and their games may in fact present the best value.
New Head Coach + New attitude is Not Equal to More Wins
With a new head coach comes an air of optimism. When a team gets a new coach most believe that is instant remedy for a failing system. Although in the long run, in some cases this is true, the stats show that in recent years, especially with the game of football becoming more complex, the new head coach, which includes an infusion of new beliefs, systems and general "ways of doing things" has been a profitable go against at the wager window. All systems take time to understand, and more importantly perfect. Thus, the theory of playing against a new head coach is reasonable. If we dig further and evaluate a new coach's record when his team is favoured we find a nice system that has produced ATS winners at a 35-16-1 record since 1997. Is this an aberration or an up and coming system? Fade or follow? You decide. What I can say is that the research I have done on this subject, leads me to believe that this trend will continue and we will have more than a few opportunities to consider games that fall into this situation.
Last season there were only 3 instances where a new head coach was favoured the record was 2-1 ATS but one win is thrown out as it was played against a team with a new head coach. This season with big name coaches moving to talented teams in Washington, Indianapolis and Tampa this opportunity will be more prevalent. Overall last season new head coaches went an abysmal 3-11-2 ATS in games played in the month of September overall.
During the 2000 season, teams with new coaches were a combined 4-10-1 ATS in the month of September as a favourite. In 1999 the nine teams with new coaches were 2-9-0 when laying points. In 1998 and 1997 teams in the same situation were a combined 11-15-0 ATS when favoured. This is one system that is an excellent starting point for handicapping early season games.
Win Your Early Home Games
To make the playoffs, or at least have a chance, a team must win its home games. The media knows this, the coaches know this, and the water boys also know this. It's little wonder, that there is a nice trend that shows home teams that are evenly matched do well at home there first few games. In this case, laying this line, in most cases a straight up win will cash the ticket. Home field is an advantage, if you don't use it, you should at least be considering it.
Last season this situation only came up 5 times but the home team laying 3 points or less (not an underdog) was 5-0 ATS in September. Week one already presents this situation a few times and its worth your while considering it. An excellent situation would be Cincinnati at home laying 3 point or less as this angle and going against a new head coach would both be "live" in this contest.
I believe this was from Statfox but will confirm that. Good luck guys.
Odds makers, in general need to set a line that will bring in even money on both sides of a game. Therefore, they must be satisfied that the public will be split in opinion on a line, this includes those people that wager but do not follow football religiously. Because of this, often times, a good team from the previous year (e.g. The super bowl Champions) is overvalued and given an inflated line.
Although this is usually the case, this year may be different. Despite the fact that New England was 13-5-1 ATS last season there is still plenty of public opinion that last season was an aberration. This sense of public disbelief in their ability to win may sway me away from even looking at this theory. The early verdict is that they will not be overvalued but a big win in week 1 against Pittsburgh may change that quickly.
Last year the Ravens went 2-1 ATS in September games and finished 9-8 ATS overall while St. Louis went 1-2-1 ATS in September and a miserable 6-10-1 ATS overall following their Superbowl win. Denver opened up 0-4 ATS in 1999. My fear is that NE and their style of play is not really attractive to the public, yet their story is telling a few may be willing to jump on the bandwagon which could lead to some value.
It should also be noted that the Superbowl loser has been below or at .500 after their appearance in the big game the past few years. Last season the Giants finished 6-9-1 ATS. In 2000 the Titans finished 7-10 ATS, in 1999 Atlanta finished 6-10 ATS, 1998 saw Green Bay finish 8-8-1 ATS, and New England in 1997 went 9-9. St. Louis is a big public team and is coming off a super bowl appearance and their games may in fact present the best value.
New Head Coach + New attitude is Not Equal to More Wins
With a new head coach comes an air of optimism. When a team gets a new coach most believe that is instant remedy for a failing system. Although in the long run, in some cases this is true, the stats show that in recent years, especially with the game of football becoming more complex, the new head coach, which includes an infusion of new beliefs, systems and general "ways of doing things" has been a profitable go against at the wager window. All systems take time to understand, and more importantly perfect. Thus, the theory of playing against a new head coach is reasonable. If we dig further and evaluate a new coach's record when his team is favoured we find a nice system that has produced ATS winners at a 35-16-1 record since 1997. Is this an aberration or an up and coming system? Fade or follow? You decide. What I can say is that the research I have done on this subject, leads me to believe that this trend will continue and we will have more than a few opportunities to consider games that fall into this situation.
Last season there were only 3 instances where a new head coach was favoured the record was 2-1 ATS but one win is thrown out as it was played against a team with a new head coach. This season with big name coaches moving to talented teams in Washington, Indianapolis and Tampa this opportunity will be more prevalent. Overall last season new head coaches went an abysmal 3-11-2 ATS in games played in the month of September overall.
During the 2000 season, teams with new coaches were a combined 4-10-1 ATS in the month of September as a favourite. In 1999 the nine teams with new coaches were 2-9-0 when laying points. In 1998 and 1997 teams in the same situation were a combined 11-15-0 ATS when favoured. This is one system that is an excellent starting point for handicapping early season games.
Win Your Early Home Games
To make the playoffs, or at least have a chance, a team must win its home games. The media knows this, the coaches know this, and the water boys also know this. It's little wonder, that there is a nice trend that shows home teams that are evenly matched do well at home there first few games. In this case, laying this line, in most cases a straight up win will cash the ticket. Home field is an advantage, if you don't use it, you should at least be considering it.
Last season this situation only came up 5 times but the home team laying 3 points or less (not an underdog) was 5-0 ATS in September. Week one already presents this situation a few times and its worth your while considering it. An excellent situation would be Cincinnati at home laying 3 point or less as this angle and going against a new head coach would both be "live" in this contest.
I believe this was from Statfox but will confirm that. Good luck guys.
